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| (SCRX) |  | | Company Name: | | | Ticker Symbol: | SCRX | | Industry: | | | Company Website: | http://www.sciele.com | | Summary: Sciele Pharma, Inc. (SCRX), a specialty pharmaceutical company, engages in the development, marketing, and sale of prescription products for the tr...more | |
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Reasons to Buy
Investors Give Reasons to Buy
| If You Think Is a Buy, Post Your Reasons Below | |
Analysts Recommending Buy
Reasons to Sell
Investors Give Reasons to Sell
| If You Think Is a Sell, Post Your Reasons Below | |
Analysts Recommending Sell
Reasons to Hold
Investors Give Reasons to Hold
| If You Think Is a Hold, Post Your Reasons Below | |
Analysts Recommending Hold
How Can I Decide if Is a Buy or a Sell?
| | How Can I Decide if Is a Buy or a Sell? | Follow the Experts...
| | There are 0 individual(s) in the US who know more about and its stock price than almost anyone else These 0 individual(s) are the 0 brokerage analysts who follow and whose research is discussed above by Wiki posters who receive the research from these brokerage firms To decide if you want to buy , you could read the discussions above and see if you find a bull or bear argument for that you think is compelling – or you might toss a coin. To help you evaluate the credibility of the arguments made by an analyst, we have displayed the Zacks All Star Rating of the analyst after his/her name. Zacks rates analysts as 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 STAR analysts based on the performance of their stock recommendations. The analysts with 5 STAR ratings have had the best performance. For more information on these Zacks Analyst ratings, go to http://www.zacks.com | |
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...or Make Your Own Non-Consensus Decision
| | However, we believe that there is a better way to make stock selection decisions, and this Wiki is dedicated to this technique. The better way – which is taught to all MBA students, and used by professional investors – is not easy. But it is one of the few investment techniques that actually does work. The better way requires you to find errors in the consensus forecasts of revenue and EPS. Until the creation of this Wiki, it has been virtually impossible for an individual investor to develop accurate non consensus revenue and earnings forecasts because no one individual has had enough information to accurately out-forecast the Wall Street analysts.
However, by using the Wiki to pool together the collaborative intelligence of large numbers of individuals who are familiar with the Industry, with , and with its suppliers and customers, we as a group do have a realistic chance of finding that nugget of accurate non-consensus information.
Warren Buffett finds these nuggets. This Wiki can help you find your own nuggets.
But this process can only work for those companies and industries with which you are very familiar. To apply this process to , you need to focus on 2 questions:- Do I agree with the consensus estimate of the future revenue of ?
- Do I agree with the consensus estimates of the EPS of ?
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How Can I Find Errors in the Consensus Forecasts for ?
| How Can I Find Errors in the Consensus Forecasts for ? | The following sections are designed to help Wiki users identify errors in the consensus revenue forecasts for the major products. Below each consensus revenue forecast is a Wiki section reserved for users to discuss why these consensus forecasts may be high or low.
All consensus forecasts are provided by Zacks Investment Research. |
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EPS FORECASTS
This section is designed to find errors as the consensus forecast of EPS. The consensus forecasts for the lines in the Income Statement are shown and below each consensus forecast is a wiki section to discuss why the consensus forecast of that item may be high or low
Consensus Forecasts of Total Revenue
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Dec-05 |
Dec-06 |
Dec-07 |
Dec-08 |
Dec-09 |
Dec-10 |
Dec-11 |
11/05 |
| 1. Total Revenue |
$216.40 |
$293.20 |
$382.30 |
$443.80 |
$487.60 |
$535.70 |
$647.10 |
20.0% |
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Consensus Forecasts of Cost of Goods Sold
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Dec-05 |
Dec-06 |
Dec-07 |
Dec-08 |
Dec-09 |
Dec-10 |
Dec-11 |
| 2. Cost of Goods Sold |
$33.30 |
$40.70 |
$50.30 |
$50.00 |
$56.80 |
$63.80 |
$77.30 |
| Percent of Revenue |
15% |
14% |
13% |
11% |
12% |
12% |
12% |
| 3. Gross Profit (1-2) |
$183.10 |
$252.50 |
$332.00 |
$393.80 |
$430.80 |
$471.90 |
$569.80 |
| Percent of Revenue |
85% |
86% |
87% |
89% |
88% |
88% |
88% |
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Consensus Forecasts of SG & A
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Dec-05 |
Dec-06 |
Dec-07 |
Dec-08 |
Dec-09 |
Dec-10 |
Dec-11 |
| 4. SG & A |
$97.40 |
$144.70 |
$186.70 |
$222.60 |
$238.70 |
$258.80 |
$297.90 |
| Percent of Revenue |
45% |
49% |
49% |
50% |
49% |
48% |
46% |
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Consensus Forecasts of Research and Development
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Dec-05 |
Dec-06 |
Dec-07 |
Dec-08 |
Dec-09 |
Dec-10 |
Dec-11 |
| 5. Research and Development |
$4.10 |
$16.50 |
$32.50 |
$35.80 |
$39.90 |
$43.50 |
$51.90 |
| Percent of Revenue |
2% |
6% |
9% |
8% |
8% |
8% |
8% |
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Consensus Forecasts of Pre - Tax Income
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Dec-05 |
Dec-06 |
Dec-07 |
Dec-08 |
Dec-09 |
Dec-10 |
Dec-11 |
| 7. Pre - Tax Income |
$58.40 |
$67.10 |
$88.60 |
$98.40 |
$118.00 |
$138.50 |
$187.60 |
| 8. Tax provisions |
$19.20 |
$21.30 |
$27.80 |
$30.00 |
$39.60 |
$48.10 |
$65.70 |
| Percent of Revenue |
33% |
32% |
31% |
30% |
34% |
35% |
35% |
| 9. Net Income (7-8) |
$39.20 |
$45.80 |
$60.80 |
$68.40 |
$78.40 |
$90.40 |
$121.90 |
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Consensus Forecasts of Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding
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Dec-05 |
Dec-06 |
Dec-07 |
Dec-08 |
Dec-09 |
Dec-10 |
Dec-11 |
| Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding |
$42.50 |
$38.20 |
$36.40 |
$33.90 |
$33.80 |
$33.60 |
$34.60 |
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Consensus Forecasts of GAAP EPS
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Dec-05 |
Dec-06 |
Dec-07 |
Dec-08 |
Dec-09 |
Dec-10 |
Dec-11 |
| GAAP EPS |
$0.97 |
$1.21 |
$1.27 |
$1.94 |
$2.31 |
$2.70 |
$3.92 |
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What if I Agree with Consensus Forecasts?
| What if I Agree with Consensus Forecasts? | You Can Still Make an Effective Investment Decision
| | If you agree with the above consensus forecasts of revenue and of EPS, you can still make an effective investment decision by determining that a relative valuation metric is out of line. Perhaps because of events taking place in the industry, or with other companies, you may feel that is either undervalued or overvalued, should the consensus estimates of revenue and EPS be realized. This section of the Wiki helps you think about valuation by comparing to some of its peers using a number of standard relative valuation metrics. This section also includes a simple discounted cash flow model for based on the consensus forecasts. The following table should be your starting point. This shows P/E, P/Sales, and P/Cash Flow for and for comparable companies. |
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CF is operating cash flow plus after-tax interest expense. |
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| Discussion by Wiki Users of Relative Valuation | | No comments yet. Be the first | |  |
Dividend Discount Model for
| | The two major techniques used by fundamental analysts to evaluate the value of a stock are the relative valuation metrics such as PE discussed above and the dividend discount model (DDM) or discounted cash flow model (DCF). More information about these valuation-related topics is available here. This reference answers most of the questions investors have when they first encounter these discount approaches to determining value, such as: - What is the discount rate?
- Why does the DDM discount earnings and not dividends?
- How can I use a DDM if the company does not pay dividends?
- How do I set the terminal value? (applies only to DCF)
- How do I calculate cash flow to use the DCF model?
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What Do Insiders and Institutional Owners Say about ?
| Insiders and Institutional Owners Discuss Issues Here | | No comments yet. Be the first | |  |
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Industry Analysis
Industry Outlook for Major Companies
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Role in the Industry
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Company Specific Investment Issues
The issues discussed in the sections below generally comprise the bulk of the content in a typical research report. Understanding these subjects is certainly important when making an investment decision for . However, to provide the most value to Wiki users as you read and contribute to these discussions, please try and tie your comments back to their specific impact on forecasts of future Revenue, Net Income, EPS, or Cash Flow.
| Discussion about Capital Structure / Solvency / Cash Flows Issues | | No comments yet. Be the first | |  |
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| Discussion about Governance / Social Responsibility / Treatment of Employees | | No comments yet. Be the first | |  |
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| Acquisitions/Divestures/Joint Ventures/Hot New Products/Exciting Opportunities | | No comments yet. Be the first | |  |
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| Discussion about Upcoming Events to Watch for That Will Impact Stock Price | | No comments yet. Be the first | |  |
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Company Overview and History
| Company Overview | |
Sciele Pharma, Inc. (SCRX), a specialty pharmaceutical company, engages in the development, marketing, and sale of prescription products for the treatment of cardiovascular, metabolic, obstetrical and gynecological, and pediatric and gastroenterological conditions and disorders. Scieles products include Sular, an antihypertensive prescription medication Nitrolingual spray for acute relief or prevention of chest pain associated with angina pectoris that results from heart disease for curing acute angina Prenate Elite and Optinate prescription prenatal vitamin products Robinul and Robinul Forte for adjunctive therapy for peptic ulcer and Ponstel for the relief of mild to moderate pain for patients of 14 years of age and older from dysmenorrheal, which is pain associated with menstruation. And finally, Triglide, a novel treatment for lipid disorders and elevated cholesterol levels. Sciele has been pretty active on the acquisition front over the past couple of years. In 2005 Sciele acquired two products from Andrx Pharmaceuticals: Fortamet, an extended release tablet of metformin HCl for type-II diabetes, and Altoprev, a branded lovastatin for cholesterol management. In July 2007, Sciele acquired LARx, an innovative head lice asphyxiation product, developed by Summers Laboratories, Inc. for the U.S., Canada and Mexico and entered into an exclusive marketing agreement for Clonicel with Addrenex Pharmaceuticals. In June 2007, Sciele acquired privately held Alliant Pharmaceuticals Inc. for approximately $109.75 million in cash, including approximately $14 million in debt. With this acquisition, Sciele gained five products that are currently available in the pediatric market. Finally, in March 2008, Sciele acquired the Twinject epinephrine auto-injector from Verus Pharmaceuticals. SCRX sells its products to pharmaceutical wholesalers, chain drug stores, and other retail merchandisers, as well as directly to pharmacies. The company is based in Atlanta, Georgia and employs roughly 920 people worldwide.
| | Source: Zacks Investment Research |  |
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Last Modification: Tuesday 17 of March, 2009 19:02:32 CDT by WikiMigrationBot.
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