SCHERING PLOUGH (SGP)
SCHERING PLOUGH (SGP)
Company Name: SCHERING PLOUGH
Ticker Symbol: SGP
Industry: MEDICAL-DRUGS
Company Website: http://www.schering-plough.com
Summary:

Schering-Plough Corporation is a global healthcare company that offers both prescription and over the counter OTC products. The company specializ...more

Price (delayed by 20 minutes): $0.38
Number of Brokerage Firms Following Firm8
Analysts Recommending STRONG BUY0/8
Analysts Recommending BUY3/8
Analysts Recommending STRONG SELL0/8
Analysts Recommending SELL0/8
Analysts Recommending HOLD5/8


Company Overview and History


Company Overview

Schering-Plough Corporation is a global healthcare company that offers both prescription and over the counter OTC products. The company specializes in anti-infective, anticancer, allergy/respiratory and cardiovascular products such as Temodar brain cancer, Clarinex allergy relief, Nasonex allergy relief, Remicade anti-inflammatory and Zetia cholesterol inhibitor. Besides Afrin nasal spray, its prescription drug Claritin is also available over the counter. In addition, the company makes foot-care products under the Dr. Scholls brand and sun-care products under the Coppertone label. Through a joint venture, Merck and Schering-Plough co-developed and now co-market the cholesterol-lowering combination drug Zocor/Zetia called Vytorin. The companys major divisions include Prescription Pharmaceuticals, Animal Health and Consumer Health Care. The revenues from the three segments in 2008 were $14,253 million, $2,973 million and $1,276 million respectively. In 2008, 70% of Scherings revenues came from overseas. Its products are marketed in about 140 countries.

Schering-Plough was founded in 1928 and is headquartered in Kenilworth, New Jersey. At December 31, 2008, the company had 51,000 employees worldwide.

REASONS TO BUY

On March 9, 2009, Schering-Plough and Merck entered into a merger agreement valued at about $41.1 billion. The acquisition, which is expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2009, will be paid for with a combination of cash and stock. The companies expect the deal to produce $3.5 billion in annual cost savings and expect it to be slightly accretive to earnings in the first-full year and significantly accretive afterwards. The combined company will have a more diverse portfolio across important therapeutic areas, including cardiovascular, respiratory, oncology, neuroscience, infectious disease, immunology, womens health and other areas. Products of both the companies, which drive growth, will come under one roof following the merger. The merger should enable the combined entity to become one of the top five drugmakers in the world. Schering-Plough shareholders will receive 0.5767 Merck shares and $10.50 in cash for each share of Schering-Plough. The current dividend of $1.52 is expected to be maintained following the closing of the deal. It represents a significant increase for Schering-Plough shareholders. We view this deal as beneficial to Schering-Plough shareholders who have recently approved the deal.

Schering-Plough boasts of a diversified product portfolio with growth being driven by global brands like Remicade, Nasonex, and Temodar, which target rheumatoid arthritis, allergy and brain cancer respectively. Scherings diversified product base coupled with its rich geographic diversity helped it achieve operational growth in most regions worldwide in the most recent quarter. We remain very bullish on the future prospects of the rich portfolio.

The company has a number of interesting pipeline candidates that we believe are the future growth engines for Schering-Plough. The pipeline boasts of candidates like vicriviroc for the treatment of HIV/AIDS, boceprevir for hepatitis C virus, Simponi for rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis and ankylosing spondylitis and preladenant for the treatment of Parkinsons disease.

REASONS TO SELL

Although we believe that the merger between Schering-Plough and Merck is positive for both the companies, the merger has integration risks, which may expose its operating results to volatility. This will prevent the company from achieving the anticipated benefits of the merger.

Schering-Plough operates in a highly competitive industry and competes with a large number of multinational pharmaceutical companies, biotechnology companies and generic pharmaceutical companies like Pfizer Inc. and Abbott Laboratories. Many of Schering-Ploughs competitors are engaged in research and development in areas, which are also served by Schering-Plough. We feel technological advances of competitors, patents granted to them or their ability to develop new products will impact Schering-Plough.

Even though the company has an interesting pipeline, any pipeline development has attendant risks. If there is a failure in any late-stage candidate the funds invested by Schering-Plough in research programs for its development could go waste and fail to generate financial returns.


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Recent Events





Reasons to Buy SCHERING PLOUGH



Investors Give Reasons to Buy




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Analysts Recommending Buy


BrokerageAnalystZacks All
Star Rating
DateRecommendationTarget Price

Reasons to Sell SCHERING PLOUGH



Investors Give Reasons to Sell




If You Think SCHERING PLOUGH Is a Sell, Post Your Reasons Below

 


Last edited Fri Jun 19, 2009 01:30 AM
by MSamanta (Zacks Investment Research)
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Analysts Recommending Sell



Reasons to Hold SCHERING PLOUGH


Investors Give Reasons to Hold




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Analysts Recommending Hold


BrokerageAnalystZacks All
Star Rating
DateRecommendationTarget Price
ZACKS RESEARCH J NAPODANO 2/3/2009 HOLD
Schering-Plough Corporation reported second quarter earnings of $0.46 per share beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $0.45 per share. Foreign exchange negatively impacted revenues by 10% in the quarter. Earlier this year, Schering-Plough entered into a $41.1 billion merger agreement with Merck & Co., Inc. Schering-Plough shareholders will receive 0.5767 Merck shares and $10.50 for each Schering-Plough common share. The deal is expected to close in the fourth quarter of this year. The companies expect the deal to produce $3.5 billion in annual cost savings. The deal will add immediate synergies to the Vytorin/Zetia joint venture and should offer little overlap in currently marketed products and pipeline compounds. We have a Neutral rating on the stock.

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How Can I Decide if SCHERING PLOUGH Is a Buy or a Sell?





How Can I Decide if SCHERING PLOUGH Is a Buy or a Sell?
How Can I Find Errors in the Consensus Forecasts For SCHERING PLOUGH?
What if I Agree with Consensus Forecasts?
Terms
Capital Structure, Solvency and Cash Flow
Governance, Social Responsibility and Employee Relations
Acquisitions, Divestitures and Joint Ventures
New Products or Opportunities
Questionable Practices
Recent and Upcoming Events
Major Risks


How Can I Decide if SCHERING PLOUGH Is a Buy or a Sell?
Follow the Experts...

There are 8 individual(s) in the US who know more about SCHERING PLOUGH and its stock price than almost anyone else

These 8 individual(s) are the 8 brokerage analysts who follow SCHERING PLOUGH and whose research is discussed above by Wiki posters who receive the research from these brokerage firms

To decide if you want to buy SCHERING PLOUGH, you could read the discussions above and see if you find a bull or bear argument for SCHERING PLOUGH that you think is compelling – or you might toss a coin.

To help you evaluate the credibility of the arguments made by an analyst, we have displayed the Zacks All Star Rating of the analyst after his/her name. Zacks rates analysts as 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 STAR analysts based on the performance of their stock recommendations. The analysts with 5 STAR ratings have had the best performance.

For more information on these Zacks Analyst ratings, go to http://www.zacks.com


...or Make Your Own Non-Consensus Decision

However, we believe that there is a better way to make stock selection decisions, and this Wiki is dedicated to this technique.

The better way – which is taught to all MBA students, and used by professional investors – is not easy. But it is one of the few investment techniques that actually does work. The better way requires you to find errors in the consensus forecasts of revenue and EPS.

Until the creation of this Wiki, it has been virtually impossible for an individual investor to develop accurate non consensus revenue and earnings forecasts because no one individual has had enough information to accurately out-forecast the Wall Street analysts.

However, by using the Wiki to pool together the collaborative intelligence of large numbers of individuals who are familiar with the MEDICAL-DRUGS Industry, with SCHERING PLOUGH, and with its suppliers and customers, we as a group do have a realistic chance of finding that nugget of accurate non-consensus information.

Warren Buffett finds these nuggets. This Wiki can help you find your own nuggets.

But this process can only work for those companies and industries with which you are very familiar. To apply this process to SCHERING PLOUGH, you need to focus on 2 questions:
  • Do I agree with the consensus estimate of the future revenue of SCHERING PLOUGH?
  • Do I agree with the consensus estimates of the EPS of SCHERING PLOUGH?

How Can I Find Errors in the Consensus Forecasts for SCHERING PLOUGH?


How Can I Find Errors in the Consensus Forecasts for SCHERING PLOUGH?
The following sections are designed to help Wiki users identify errors in the consensus revenue forecasts for the major SCHERING PLOUGH products. Below each consensus revenue forecast is a Wiki section reserved for users to discuss why these consensus forecasts may be high or low.

All consensus forecasts are provided by Zacks Investment Research.



Consensus Forecast of SCHERING PLOUGH Revenue in Millions
Fundamental Charts

SGP Stock Chart by YCharts

2006A 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E Annualized Growth

Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-08

Dec-09

Dec-10

10/06

$10,594.00 $12,690.00 $18,502.00 $18,044.80 $18,858.69 15.5%
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Consensus Forecast of SCHERING PLOUGH EPS
2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E

Dec-05

Dec-06

Dec-07

Dec-08

Dec-09

Dec-10

Dec-11

$0.12 $0.74 $1.37 $1.75 $1.81 $1.95 $2.15
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EPS FORECASTS

This section is designed to find errors as the consensus forecast of EPS. The consensus forecasts for the lines in the SCHERING PLOUGH Income Statement are shown and below each consensus forecast is a wiki section to discuss why the consensus forecast of that item may be high or low

Consensus Forecasts of Total Revenue
2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E Annualized Growth
Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 12/05
1. Total Revenue $9,509.0 $10,571.4 $12,675.6 $18,506.2 $18,066.7 $18,986.0 $19,688.1 $20,701.0 11.8%
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Consensus Forecasts of Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding
2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E
Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 1483.0 1490.7 1604.7 1635.0 1683.1 1705.7 1732.4 1726.8
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Consensus Forecasts of Pro Forma EPS
2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E
Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12
Pro Forma EPS $0.4 $0.8 $1.4 $1.7 $1.8 $2.0 $2.1 $2.3
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Consensus Forecasts of GAAP EPS
2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E
Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12
GAAP EPS $0.1 $0.8 ($1.0) $1.0 $1.6 $1.8 $2.0 $2.1
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Consensus Forecasts of Cost of Goods Sold
2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E
Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12
2. Cost of Goods Sold $3,346.0 $3,572.6 $4,103.9 $5,876.8 $5,651.8 $6,004.8 $6,199.9 $6,559.7
Percent of Revenue 35% 34% 32% 32% 31% 32% 31% 32%
3. Gross Profit (1-2) $6,163.00 $6,998.80 $8,571.70 $12,629.40 $12,414.90 $12,981.20 $13,488.20 $14,141.30
Percent of Revenue 65% 66% 68% 68% 69% 68% 69% 68%
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Consensus Forecasts of SG & A
2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E
Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12
4. SG & A $4,375.0 $4,717.3 $5,467.0 $6,817.6 $6,373.4 $6,528.9 $6,671.0 $7,095.9
Percent of Revenue 46% 45% 43% 37% 35% 34% 34% 34%
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Consensus Forecasts of Research and Development
2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E
Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12
5. Research and Development $1,742.0 $2,173.2 $2,745.2 $3,520.8 $3,462.9 $3,656.6 $3,805.5 $4,002.5
Percent of Revenue 18% 21% 22% 19% 19% 19% 19% 19%
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Consensus Forecasts of Pre - Tax Income
2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009E 2010E 2011E 2012E
Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12
7. Pre - Tax Income $915.0 $1,701.8 $2,621.9 $3,478.3 $3,762.6 $4,149.7 $4,531.7 $4,942.5
8. Tax provisions $275.0 $361.4 $349.1 $528.4 $561.5 $680.2 $779.9 $913.0
Percent of Revenue 30% 21% 13% 15% 15% 16% 17% 18%
9. Net Income (7-8) $640.00 $1,340.40 $2,272.80 $2,949.90 $3,201.10 $3,469.50 $3,751.80 $4,029.50
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What if I Agree with Consensus Forecasts?


What if I Agree with Consensus Forecasts?
You Can Still Make an Effective Investment Decision

If you agree with the above consensus forecasts of revenue and of EPS, you can still make an effective investment decision by determining that a relative valuation metric is out of line.

Perhaps because of events taking place in the industry, or with other companies, you may feel that SCHERING PLOUGH is either undervalued or overvalued, should the consensus estimates of revenue and EPS be realized.

This section of the Wiki helps you think about valuation by comparing SCHERING PLOUGH to some of its peers using a number of standard relative valuation metrics. This section also includes a simple discounted cash flow model for SCHERING PLOUGH based on the consensus forecasts.

The following table should be your starting point. This shows P/E, P/Sales, and P/Cash Flow for SCHERING PLOUGH and for comparable companies.




INDUSTRY COMPARABLES

Revenue (mil)

Net Income (mil)

ROE

EPS Gr 5Yr Est

P/E F1

P/Sales

P/CF

SGP (SCHERING PLOUGH)

$17,964.00

$2,545.00

36.3%

9%

14.97

2.5

8.5

Industry Mean

-7%

13%

13.79

15.5

9.5

S&P 500

28%

10%

18.65

1.7

10.3

NVO (NOVO-NORDISK AS)

$9,064.00

$1,969.91

31.9%

20%

18.90

4.1

28.2

LLY (LILLY ELI & CO)

$20,760.00

($1,623.40)

52.8%

4%

7.68

1.8

6.7

BMY (BRISTOL MYR SQB)

$20,902.00

$5,443.00

29.7%

7%

10.86

2.1

10.0

CF is operating cash flow plus after-tax interest expense.

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Dividend Discount Model for SCHERING PLOUGH

The two major techniques used by fundamental analysts to evaluate the value of a stock are the relative valuation metrics such as PE discussed above and the dividend discount model (DDM) or discounted cash flow model (DCF).

More information about these valuation-related topics is available here.

This reference answers most of the questions investors have when they first encounter these discount approaches to determining value, such as:

  1. What is the discount rate?
  2. Why does the DDM discount earnings and not dividends?
  3. How can I use a DDM if the company does not pay dividends?
  4. How do I set the terminal value? (applies only to DCF)
  5. How do I calculate cash flow to use the DCF model?

What Do Insiders and Institutional Owners Say about SCHERING PLOUGH?


Insiders and Institutional Owners Discuss Issues Here
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Industry Analysis


Industry Outlook for Major MEDICAL-DRUGS Companies

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Medical continues to be the leading sector in terms of positive earnings estimate revisions. The comparatively low level of economic sensitivity is a big factor for why the sector ranks so well.

Multiple companies within the sector have reported good third-quarter earnings and raised guidance. These bullish events have led to positive earnings estimate revisions by brokerage analysts. They have also allowed Medical-Biomedical/Genetics and Medical-Generic Drugs to be among the best ranked industry groups.

Investors who are interested in both groups should note that company stories matter more than in other groups. The reason is that drug approval and drug safety issues are factors that can significantly influence a stock's price. Therefore, a greater focus on company selection is required than in other industry groups.
 
President Obama intends to allow the federal government to negotiate on drug prices, he also wants universal coverage. It is possible that drug companies could end up seeing a greater amount of business, albeit at lower margins.


Last edited Tue Apr 07, 2009 01:41 AM
by ShaliniSinghal (Zacks Investment Research)
SCHERING PLOUGH Role in the MEDICAL-DRUGS Industry

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Schering-Plough Corporation (SGP) is a global healthcare company that offers both prescription and over-the counter (OTC) products. The company specializes in anti-infective, anticancer, allergy/respiratory and cardiovascular products such as Temodar (brain cancer), Clarinex (allergy relief), Nasonex (allergy relief), Remicade (anti-inflammatory), and Zetia (cholesterol inhibitor). Besides, its prescription drug Claritin used to treat allergies is also available over the counter. Through a joint venture, Merck and Schering-Plough co-developed and now co-market the cholesterol-lowering combination drug Vytorin (Zocor + Zetia). Schering-Plough is in the process of a massive restructuring and reorganization program called the Value Enhancement Initiative (VEI) initiated in 2003 to cut costs and reduce its dependency on the now OTC-available Claritin franchise. In April 2008, SGP also initiated the Productivity Transformation Initiative in response to the expected substantial decline in cholesterol franchise sales.

The company has for some time now entered the Build the Base phase, in which the company plans to build the business through acquisitions. The acquisition of Organon is an important part of the company’s Build the Base phase. Most analysts believe the fundamentals of SGP are solid on the basis of the expected margin leverage and though the SEAS and ENHANCE trials are an overhang for the cholesterol franchise they believe the Organon integration will drive greater-than-expected EPS leverage. Other products, like Remicade and Zetia, continue to show strong growth. SGP is also less exposed than many of its industry peers to major patent cliffs over the next few years.

The company is intensifying its focus on China, Russia, Turkey, and Central and Eastern Europe, with new commercial operations in Korea, Pakistan, and Vietnam. Management believes these actions will allow it to better meet the needs of customers, and build a competitive edge in these increasingly important markets.

 


Last edited Tue Dec 23, 2008 05:28 AM
by MadhuGoyal (Zacks Investment Research)

Company Specific Investment Issues


The issues discussed in the sections below generally comprise the bulk of the content in a typical research report. Understanding these subjects is certainly important when making an investment decision for SCHERING PLOUGH.

However, to provide the most value to Wiki users as you read and contribute to these discussions, please try and tie your comments back to their specific impact on forecasts of future Revenue, Net Income, EPS, or Cash Flow.

Discussion about Capital Structure / Solvency / Cash Flows Issues
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Discussion about Governance / Social Responsibility / Treatment of Employees
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Acquisitions/Divestures/Joint Ventures/Hot New Products/Exciting Opportunities

Agreement with Valeant Pharmaceuticals

On June 1, 2009, SGP and Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) entered into an exclusive option agreement for developing and selling Valeant's hepatitis C drug Taribavirin in Japan. In exchange for the exclusive option, Schering-Plough agreed to waive and release its last right of refusal under a previous agreement with Valeant. Under the terms of agreement, Schering-Plough would make an upfront payment of $2 million to Valeant and pay mid-single-digit royalties on net sales of Taribavirin in Japan.

Acquisition

On March 9, 2009, Merck & Co. announced that it will buy Schering-Plough for $41.1 billion in cash and shares. Under the terms of the deal, Schering-Plough shareholders will receive $10.50 in cash and 0.5767 Merck shares for each Schering-Plough share. The deal is expected to close in 4Q09.

The deal will be done via a complex reverse takeover in which the much smaller SGP will technically acquire Merck.
 

 


Last edited Fri Jun 19, 2009 01:33 AM
by MSamanta (Zacks Investment Research)
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Blow the Whistle
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Discussion about Upcoming Events to Watch for That Will Impact Stock Price

2009 Anticipated launch of Vicriviroc
2009 Filing for Nomac/e2
2009 Filing for Aspenine for schizophrenia and bipolar indications in Europe.
2009 Filing for MFF for the asthma indication
2009/10 Anticipated launch of Golimumab
Mid 2010 Completion of the two Phase III studies of Boceprevir - RESPOND-2 and SPRINT-2
September 2010 Conclusion of the TRA 2P-TIMI 50 trial of SCH 530348
July 2011 Conclusion of the TRA-CER trial of SCH 530348
2010-2011 Expected launch of SCH 530348
2011-2012 Filing for Boceprevir
 


Last edited Fri Jun 19, 2009 01:34 AM
by MSamanta (Zacks Investment Research)
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Discussion about Major Risks
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