TOLL BROTHERS (TOL) |
Housing Revenue(Completed contract) – Consensus Forecasts of Housing Revenue(Completed contract) Revenue in Millions  |
Oct-05 |
Oct-06 |
Oct-07 |
Oct-08 |
Oct-09 |
Oct-10 |
Oct-11 |
11/05 |
| $5,759.3 |
$1,777.1 |
$1,138.9 |
$688.4 |
$486.8 |
$444.6 |
$581.7 |
-31.8% |
|
| Tower Revenue/Percentage of completion – Consensus Forecasts of Tower Revenue/Percentage of completion Revenue in Millions |
Oct-06 |
Oct-07 |
Oct-08 |
08/06 |
| $170.5 |
$139.3 |
$41.9 |
-50.4% |
|
| Land Revenue – Consensus Forecasts of Land Revenue Revenue in Millions |
Oct-05 |
Oct-06 |
Oct-07 |
Oct-08 |
Oct-09 |
Oct-10 |
Oct-11 |
Oct-12 |
12/05 |
| $34.1 |
$8.1 |
$11.9 |
$10.0 |
$0.0 |
$4.0 |
$8.0 |
$8.0 |
-18.7% |
|
EPS FORECASTS
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This section is designed to find errors as the consensus forecast of EPS. The consensus forecasts for the lines in the TOLL BROTHERS Income Statement are shown and below each consensus forecast is a wiki section to discuss why the consensus forecast of that item may be high or low
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| Consensus Forecasts of Total Revenue |
| |
Oct-05 |
Oct-06 |
Oct-07 |
Oct-08 |
Oct-09 |
Oct-10 |
Oct-11 |
Oct-12 |
12/05 |
| 1. Total Revenue |
$5,862.0 |
$6,123.5 |
$4,647.0 |
$3,153.9 |
$1,755.1 |
$1,467.5 |
$1,755.6 |
$2,091.2 |
-13.7% |
|
| Discussion by Wiki Users | | Management expects to deliver homes in 4Q10 within the range of 560 and 760, leading to FY10 total deliveries in the range of 2,500 to 2,700 homes. Average price per home delivered has been estimated between $560,000 and $570,000 for the fourth quarter.
Toll Brothers expects its revenue in 4Q10 to be lower than the actual revenues in 4Q09. According to the Company, economic and political situation around the nation is much delicate resulting in lack of customers’ confidence. As a result, potential buyers have postponed their purchasing decisions, thereby leading to a reduction in the production of new homes and higher number of home producers pulling themselves out of the luxury home business. Management believes that this reduction in competition will help to increase the demand for its homes in the near future when the economy will start recovering.
| Last edited Wed Nov 10, 2010 01:46 AM
by BipashaChowdhury (Zacks Investment Research) |  |
| Consensus Forecasts of Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding |
| |
Oct-05 |
Oct-06 |
Oct-07 |
Oct-08 |
Oct-09 |
Oct-10 |
Oct-11 |
Oct-12 |
| Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding |
168.6 |
164.9 |
163.9 |
159.4 |
161.4 |
164.8 |
165.2 |
165.4 |
|
| Consensus Forecasts of GAAP EPS |
| |
Oct-05 |
Oct-06 |
Oct-07 |
Oct-08 |
Oct-09 |
Oct-10 |
Oct-11 |
Oct-12 |
| GAAP EPS |
$4.8 |
$4.2 |
$0.2 |
($1.9) |
($4.7) |
($0.7) |
$0.2 |
|
|
| Consensus Forecasts of Selling, General and Administrative Expense |
| |
Oct-05 |
Oct-06 |
Oct-07 |
Oct-08 |
Oct-09 |
Oct-10 |
Oct-11 |
Oct-12 |
| 4. Selling, General and Administrative Expense |
$482.8 |
$573.3 |
$516.8 |
$430.1 |
$320.3 |
$272.9 |
$293.5 |
$311.7 |
| Percent of Revenue |
8% |
9% |
11% |
14% |
18% |
19% |
17% |
15% |
|
| Consensus Forecasts of Interest Income/(Expense) |
| |
Oct-05 |
Oct-06 |
Oct-07 |
Oct-08 |
Oct-09 |
Oct-10 |
Oct-11 |
Oct-12 |
| 6. Interest Income/(Expense) |
$125.3 |
$122.0 |
$102.3 |
$88.9 |
$78.7 |
$82.0 |
$73.0 |
$62.5 |
| Percent of Revenue |
2% |
2% |
2% |
3% |
4% |
6% |
4% |
3% |
|
| Consensus Forecasts of Pre - Tax Income |
| |
Oct-05 |
Oct-06 |
Oct-07 |
Oct-08 |
Oct-09 |
Oct-10 |
Oct-11 |
Oct-12 |
| 7. Pre - Tax Income |
$1,323.1 |
$1,126.9 |
$71.3 |
($466.8) |
($495.2) |
($118.0) |
$46.3 |
$119.5 |
| 8. Tax provisions |
$517.0 |
$437.5 |
$35.0 |
($169.0) |
$259.2 |
($30.1) |
$11.3 |
|
| Percent of Revenue |
39% |
39% |
49% |
36% |
-52% |
26% |
24% |
|
| 9. Net Income (7-8) |
$806.10 |
$689.40 |
$36.30 |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
$35.00 |
|
|
| TOL (TOLL BROTHERS) |
$1,586.00 |
($664.92) |
-25.4% |
|
|
2.1 |
|
Industry Mean |
|
|
-13% |
10% |
31.04 |
0.8 |
10.8 |
| S&P 500 |
|
|
23% |
11% |
13.71
| 1.9 |
|
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|
HOV (HOVNANIAN ENTRP) |
$1,542.00 |
($302.11) |
|
|
5.79 |
0.3 |
|
KBH (KB HOME) |
$1,781.00 |
($98.42) |
-38.8% |
|
|
0.7 |
|
NVR (NVR INC) |
$2,725.00 |
$206.28 |
12.1% |
13% |
19.75 |
1.5 |
19.8 |
CF is operating cash flow plus after-tax interest expense. |
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Created by: WikiMigrationBot.
Last Modification: Thursday 03 of June, 2010 08:57:04 CDT by WikiMigrationBot.
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