UGI CORP (UGI) |
| | How Can I Decide if UGI CORP Is a Buy or a Sell? | Follow the Experts...
| | There are 4 individual(s) in the US who know more about UGI CORP and its stock price than almost anyone else These 4 individual(s) are the 4 brokerage analysts who follow UGI CORP and whose research is discussed above by Wiki posters who receive the research from these brokerage firms To decide if you want to buy UGI CORP, you could read the discussions above and see if you find a bull or bear argument for UGI CORP that you think is compelling – or you might toss a coin. To help you evaluate the credibility of the arguments made by an analyst, we have displayed the Zacks All Star Rating of the analyst after his/her name. Zacks rates analysts as 1, 2, 3, 4, or 5 STAR analysts based on the performance of their stock recommendations. The analysts with 5 STAR ratings have had the best performance. For more information on these Zacks Analyst ratings, go to http://www.zacks.com | |
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...or Make Your Own Non-Consensus Decision
| | However, we believe that there is a better way to make stock selection decisions, and this Wiki is dedicated to this technique. The better way – which is taught to all MBA students, and used by professional investors – is not easy. But it is one of the few investment techniques that actually does work. The better way requires you to find errors in the consensus forecasts of revenue and EPS. Until the creation of this Wiki, it has been virtually impossible for an individual investor to develop accurate non consensus revenue and earnings forecasts because no one individual has had enough information to accurately out-forecast the Wall Street analysts.
However, by using the Wiki to pool together the collaborative intelligence of large numbers of individuals who are familiar with the UTILITY-GAS DISTRIBUTION Industry, with UGI CORP, and with its suppliers and customers, we as a group do have a realistic chance of finding that nugget of accurate non-consensus information.
Warren Buffett finds these nuggets. This Wiki can help you find your own nuggets.
But this process can only work for those companies and industries with which you are very familiar. To apply this process to UGI CORP, you need to focus on 2 questions:- Do I agree with the consensus estimate of the future revenue of UGI CORP?
- Do I agree with the consensus estimates of the EPS of UGI CORP?
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| How Can I Find Errors in the Consensus Forecasts for UGI CORP? | The following sections are designed to help Wiki users identify errors in the consensus revenue forecasts for the major UGI CORP products. Below each consensus revenue forecast is a Wiki section reserved for users to discuss why these consensus forecasts may be high or low.
All consensus forecasts are provided by Zacks Investment Research. |
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| What if I Agree with Consensus Forecasts? | You Can Still Make an Effective Investment Decision
| | If you agree with the above consensus forecasts of revenue and of EPS, you can still make an effective investment decision by determining that a relative valuation metric is out of line. Perhaps because of events taking place in the industry, or with other companies, you may feel that UGI CORP is either undervalued or overvalued, should the consensus estimates of revenue and EPS be realized. This section of the Wiki helps you think about valuation by comparing UGI CORP to some of its peers using a number of standard relative valuation metrics. This section also includes a simple discounted cash flow model for UGI CORP based on the consensus forecasts. The following table should be your starting point. This shows P/E, P/Sales, and P/Cash Flow for UGI CORP and for comparable companies. |
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Dividend Discount Model for UGI CORP
| | The two major techniques used by fundamental analysts to evaluate the value of a stock are the relative valuation metrics such as PE discussed above and the dividend discount model (DDM) or discounted cash flow model (DCF). More information about these valuation-related topics is available here. This reference answers most of the questions investors have when they first encounter these discount approaches to determining value, such as: - What is the discount rate?
- Why does the DDM discount earnings and not dividends?
- How can I use a DDM if the company does not pay dividends?
- How do I set the terminal value? (applies only to DCF)
- How do I calculate cash flow to use the DCF model?
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Created by: WikiMigrationBot.
Last Modification: Thursday 03 of June, 2010 09:01:14 CDT by WikiMigrationBot.
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